Expropriation

March new home sales in the Greater Toronto Area improved year-over-year, but the word "improved" is doing a lot of heavy lifting. There were 948 new homes sold in the GTA last month — up significantly from March 2025's historic low of 439 units, but still 64% below the 10-year average of 2,659.

In other words: second-worst March on record.

As homeowners age, there is a natural inclination to downsize, whether it be because children have moved out into homes of their own, or for increased accessibility, safety, and convenience.

According to Statistics Canada data from 2024, approximately 7.74 million people — about 18.9% of the total population of Canada — is over the age of 65, and the proportion is expected to increase to about 25% by 2030. Accordingly, a “downsizing wave” is expected, and it could become a significant factor in real estate markets.

New data from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation shows housing construction continued to lose momentum in March 2026, even as year-over-year comparisons painted a rosier picture.

The six-month trend in housing starts fell 2.9% to 248,378 units, while the total monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate dropped 6% to 235,852 units — down from 250,961 in February. Actual housing starts in centres with a population of 10,000 or greater were up 10% year-over-year, with 16,398 units recorded compared to 14,935 in March 2025. Year-to-date starts sit at 49,206 units, up 9% from the same period last year, led by British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

New data from the Canadian Real Estate Association shows national home sales were essentially unchanged in March 2026, ticking down just 0.1% month-over-month — but the stability masks a more complicated picture.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales came in 2.3% below March 2025, while the national average home price landed at $673,084, down 0.8% year-over-year. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite fell 0.4% month-over-month and was down 4.7% compared to March 2025 — though the month-over-month decline was smaller than in February, and roughly half the drop recorded in January.