It’s taking some time for the weather to get the memo, but the summer season is approaching fast, and with it, new market dynamics that could reshape the Toronto housing market over the warmer months.
In February, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) released their 2026 outlook, which predicts a relatively tame year for the Toronto market. In the first half of the year, TRREB expects restrained price growth and slower sales activity as inventory remains high and economic uncertainty keeps buyers on the sidelines. Later in the year (pending a more stable economy), the Board expects mild improvement, ending 2026 with 60,000 to 70,000 total transactions, and with average home prices between $1 million and $1.03 million. This outcome would represent a continuation of 2025 numbers. At the end of last year, Toronto had recorded 62,433 home sales and an average selling price of $1,067,968, for comparison.
So far, TRREB’s forecast has been accurate. This spring, home sales ticked upwards each month, with slight year-over-year gains recorded in March and April. Meanwhile, average selling prices saw a modest increase from $1,008,968 to $1,051,969 between February and April.
Heading into the summer season, the market has tightened slightly, with April seeing sales increase 7% year over year and listings fall 9.3%. Cailey Heaps, Toronto realtor and President and CEO of the Heaps Estrin Team, says she expects this trend to continue.
“We’re certainly seeing an increase in buyer activity, and our mortgage brokers are seeing an increase across the board, not just through our company, but across their approvals,” says Heaps.
She says her team is planning for a more robust summer than recent years and predicts we’ll see a continuation of the steady yet mild growth seen over the spring. This is because many sidelined buyers have been trying to time the price bottom, which Heaps says has likely arrived. “There's a general consensus amongst buyers that we've hit bottom. There's nothing to wait for anymore, and they're wanting to get in the market before prices start to move,” she says.
Weather may also play a role. “The winter was so long and painful that people just didn't want to be outside looking at houses,” says Heaps. “So a lot of the early activity that we would typically see in the first or second quarters is going to be pushed to late Q2, Q3, and likely Q4.”
At the same time, some buyers remain boxed out of the market amid historically elevated prices, while others are nervous about ongoing economic uncertainty stemming from inflation, U.S. tariffs, and the war in Iran. There’s also concern around changing interest rates. “Some may want to wait and see where [rates] level off,” she says. “But any buyer who's in the market now should be getting pre-approved.” Heaps says these tailwinds are what could keep prices in check over the summer season.
In terms of what’s selling this summer, Heaps says condos are continuing to struggle, but not all types. “Certainly the condo market is challenging, but I'd say the most challenging are the micro units,” she says. “Two bedrooms are doing better than one bedrooms and bachelors, and three bedrooms are actually doing fairly well.”
Semi-detached homes priced under $2 million are very active, with Heaps reporting multiple offers on listings. Larger detached homes in the $2 million to $4 million range have also come back to life, she says, but not to the same extent as semi-detached homes. Heaps says this is likely because semi-detached homes are more appealing to first-time homebuyers who have been waiting to get into the market. Those who are already housed don’t feel as much pressure to move.
The over-$4 million luxury homes in neighbourhoods like Moore Park, Rosedale, Forest Hill, and Lawrence Park are alive and well, she says, reporting multiple offers in that segment as well. “That market is far outperforming where it was a year ago,” Heaps says.
Heaps says she always advises against trying to time the market, and instead, purchasing real estate when it suits you. This means buying a home or moving when you experience a lifestyle change such as getting a promotion, having children, inheriting money, or retiring.
For buyers wanting to get into the market this summer, however, Heaps recommends getting pre-approved for your mortgage and looking for properties that have been on the market since the winter or early spring to optimize negotiating power.
