GTA new home sales aren't out of the woods yet — but the low-rise market is making a strong case for optimism.
For the second consecutive month, single-family home sales in the Greater Toronto Area surpassed the 10-year average, buoyed by the enhanced HST rebate program introduced in April 2026. According to new data from BILD and market intelligence firm Altus Group, 830 single-family homes sold in the GTA in May — 26% above the segment's 10-year average, and a significant jump from the same month in 2025.
The broader picture is more complicated. Total new home sales across the GTA reached 1,023 units in May — a meaningful rebound from last May's record low, but still 57% below the overall 10-year average of 2,353 units for the month.
The gap is almost entirely attributable to the condominium sector. Just 193 condo apartment units sold in May, landing 89% below the 10-year average. The HST rebate hasn't moved the needle for high-rise for two structural reasons: much of the existing inventory is tied to legacy pricing that makes rebate eligibility difficult, and new high-rise projects are unlikely to meet the program's "substantially completed" requirement within its defined window. Only one new condo project has launched in the GTA so far in 2026, according to Altus Group Research Manager Edward Jegg.
On pricing, the benchmark for new condo apartments held at $1,029,489 — what BILD describes as an apparent price floor. New single-family homes benchmarked at $1,427,543, down 5.2% over the past 12 months. Both figures are gross prices and don't reflect any HST rebate savings.
Inventory dipped below 20,000 units for the third time in 24 months, landing at 18,763 in May — 13,138 condo apartment units and 5,625 single-family dwellings. That works out to 32 months of supply at the current sales pace, though BILD cautions that figure will compress quickly as sales volume increases.
There is a small catch inside the single-family story, though. May sales came in slightly below April — and BILD COO Justin Sherwood points to lingering uncertainty around how the rebate will be administered as the likely culprit. Buyers who qualify aren't necessarily walking away; they're waiting for answers. Sherwood has been clear that resolving those details is what stands between the current momentum and something more sustained.
In Simcoe County, the trend held: 56 single-family new homes sold in May, with a weighted average price of $1,143,359. No condo apartment sales were recorded in the region.
