For decades, buying a home was viewed as a rite of passage to adulthood. It represented stability, security, and the opportunity to build a future. Today, for many young people, it feels more like a fantasy than a realistic goal.
Recent polling and research have consistently shown that a growing number of young people no longer believe they will ever own a home. They don’t believe the housing crisis is being resolved.
While governments talk about affordability, youth do not see affordability improving in their daily lives.
Surveys of Ontarians aged 18 to 38 found that only 47% believe homeownership is achievable. More than one-quarter say it is not achievable at all, while another quarter are unsure. Young Ontarians are among the least optimistic people in Canada when it comes to their housing prospects.
A 2025 report commissioned by the Ontario Home Builders' Association found that young people in Ontario have "little hope" of buying a home. Eleven of 26 municipalities studied were deemed "completely unattainable" for middle-class households.
The report found that while house prices have more than doubled since 2005, inflation-adjusted wages have risen just 16%. In major markets such as Toronto, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Guelph, and Barrie, homes now cost more than seven times annual pre-tax income.
Twenty-five years ago, the typical Ontario home cost roughly three to four times household income. Today, the ratio is closer to seven to nine times.
Not surprisingly, confidence has collapsed.
A housing outlook by the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) paints a similarly grim picture. Only 12% of Ontarians believe housing will become more affordable over the next five years. More than one-quarter of aspiring homeowners now believe they will never buy a home.
Young people are often accused of being pessimistic. In this case, however, their skepticism is justified.
This is not to say there haven’t been some positive developments.
Governments have finally acknowledged the severity of the housing crisis. The federal and Ontario governments have introduced new temporary HST rebates and other measures aimed at improving affordability while some municipalities have begun exploring reductions in development charges (DCs).
Polling conducted by Abacus Data for OREA found that 75% of Ontarians support reducing municipal DCs and 72% support provincial limits on those charges. Most reject the notion that new homebuyers should bear the cost of growth-related infrastructure.
They are right.
DCs are a hidden tax on homeownership. While municipalities defend them under the principle that "growth should pay for growth," the practical effect is that first-time buyers and young families are forced to shoulder the cost of infrastructure that benefits entire communities. The charges are embedded in housing prices and financed through mortgages.
Reducing DCs won’t solve every housing problem. But it would directly reduce construction costs, improve project viability and lower the final purchase price of homes. It would also send a signal that governments are serious about tackling affordability rather than merely talking about it.
The consequences of failing to act extend far beyond the housing market.
Housing affordability is increasingly shaping life decisions. Young adults are delaying marriage, postponing family formation, and reconsidering where they live. Some are leaving Ontario altogether in search of more affordable opportunities.
Meanwhile, there is growing evidence linking housing costs to falling birth rates. Toronto's fertility rate has fallen to just 1.11 children per woman, lower than Canada's already weak national rate of 1.25, and far below the replacement rate of 2.1. Statistics Canada has found that 37% of Canadians aged 15 to 49 do not believe they can afford to have a child within the next three years.
When housing policy begins influencing whether people can buy homes, stay in a province or have children, the issue is no longer simply about real estate. It’s a question of economic sustainability.
Young Ontarians haven’t given up on homeownership. They still want the stability and security it provides. What they have given up on is the belief that current policies are producing meaningful change.
Until governments permanently reduce the tax burden on housing and DCs, and dramatically increase supply, their skepticism will remain justified. Youth are not losing faith in homeownership. Rather, they are losing faith that governments are prepared to do what it takes to make it attainable again.
Richard Lyall is president of the Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON). He has represented the building industry in Ontario since 1991. Contact him at media@rescon.com.
