There are two wolves inside the GTA's new home market, and for now, it's single-family homes that are being fed.
According to the latest from BILD, single-family sales just posted their fourth consecutive month above the 10-year average. Condos, meanwhile, are still locked out of most of the benefit.
BILD's July numbers, sourced from Altus Group, put total new home sales at 1,018 units. That's a sharp rebound from the record low logged in July 2025, though still 40% under the decade average of 1,707 units for the month.
Single-family homes did the heavy lifting. Detached, linked, and semi-detached houses and townhouses (stacked townhouses excluded from this category) posted 781 sales — up significantly year-over-year and 50% above their 10-year July average.
Condo apartments didn't see the same lift. The category, which covers low-, medium-, and high-rise units plus stacked townhouses, moved 237 units in July. Up 40% from last year's low, yes — but still 80% below the historical average for the month.
Why the gap? Altus Group's Edward Jegg points to eligibility rules baked into the rebate program itself, which favour projects further along in construction.
"July new home sales across the GTA continued to reap the benefits of the HST rebate program led once again by the single-family sector," said Jegg, Research Manager at Altus Group. "Builders have been responding to the uptick in demand with a steady flow of new low-rise product that is keeping the sector in balance. This balanced state serves to avoid the upward pressure typically placed on pricing in a rising market."
Pricing backs that up. New single-family benchmark prices fell 8.5% over the past year to $1,362,433, even as sales climbed — a sign the extra supply is keeping the market from overheating. Condo benchmark pricing moved the other direction, up 2.5% to $1,054,938. (Both figures are gross, before any HST rebate, so BILD can compare them apples-to-apples against prior years. Buyers who qualify get additional savings on top.)
Inventory tells a similar balance story: 18,546 total units sitting on the market, split between 12,345 condo apartments and 6,201 single-family homes, working out to 36.5 months of supply at the current sales pace.
BILD President and CEO Dave Wilkes framed the single-family run as proof the rebate is working as intended.
"It is encouraging to see the positive momentum continuing for single-family homes in the GTA for the fourth straight month," Wilkes said. "I have had the opportunity to speak to a few of the homebuyers who have purchased new homes in the GTA as a result of the HST rebate program. They are thrilled at what this program has been able to do for them in terms of affordability and new homeownership. It is clear that measures like these not only make a genuine impact on new home buyers, but also help to improve the economic outlook of the region and protect jobs. We look forward to working with governments to continue to help make homeownership a reality and encourage the same results in the condominium sector as well."
Meanwhile, Simcoe County's July numbers show the same single-family lean: 64 single-family sales alongside zero condo sales, with a weighted average single-family price of $1,044,171.
