March new home sales in the Greater Toronto Area improved year-over-year, but the word "improved" is doing a lot of heavy lifting. There were 948 new homes sold in the GTA last month — up significantly from March 2025's historic low of 439 units, but still 64% below the 10-year average of 2,659.
In other words: second-worst March on record.
The data comes from Altus Group, BILD's official source for new home market intelligence, and it breaks down as such: condominium apartments — including units in low-, medium-, and high-rise buildings and stacked townhouses — accounted for 263 sales, sitting 86% below the 10-year average. Single-family homes, which include detached, linked, and semi-detached houses and townhouses (excluding stacked townhouses), accounted for 685 sales, still 12% below the 10-year average despite the year-over-year bump.
"March new home sales, though improved, were still the second worst March on record," said Edward Jegg, Research Manager at Altus Group. "Sales were especially strong at a few projects that had more aggressive pricing, showing that buyers are indeed ready to move off the sidelines under the right conditions. The waiver of all HST on new home purchases starting April 1 is expected to further incentivize buyers to jump back into the new home market."
On the inventory side, total remaining new home inventory in the GTA dipped below 20,000 units for the first time in 19 months, landing at 19,733 — comprising 13,726 condominium apartment units and 6,007 single-family dwellings. That represents a combined inventory level of 29 months, though BILD flags the number with a caution: when sales are recovering from a prolonged low period, the months-of-inventory calculation — based on the past 12 months of activity — overstates the supply picture. As sales increase, that figure is expected to drop quickly.
Benchmark prices held relatively firm. New condominium apartments came in at $1,027,477 in March, sitting at what BILD describes as an apparent price floor. New single-family homes benchmarked at $1,413,863, down 7.7% over the last 12 months. In Simcoe County, March saw 30 single-family new home sales and one condominium apartment sale, with a weighted average price of $1,153,454 for single-family homes.
The big variable for what comes next is the HST rebate. BILD Chief Operating Officer Justin Sherwood is reading March as the start of something, not the story itself.
"While we recognize the progress in new home sales for March, it is important to keep in mind the historical context of these figures," said Sherwood, BILD's Chief Operating Officer. "March 2025 was the worst March on record with only 439 new homes sold. Although we acknowledge the improvement from last year to this March, it is important to note that the market in March 2026 continued to underperform against 10-year averages. That said, the momentum is a positive indication that we are exiting the doldrums. Looking ahead, we are anticipating significantly more activity in the market as a result of the provincial-federal HST relief on new homes. Early anecdotal evidence from the first half of April points to dramatically increased activity at new home sales centres and increased sales. When we combine the increasing momentum of March with the renewed market activity in April, I think we have some exciting things to look forward to."
