New data from the Canadian Real Estate Association shows national home sales were essentially unchanged in March 2026, ticking down just 0.1% month-over-month — but the stability masks a more complicated picture.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales came in 2.3% below March 2025, while the national average home price landed at $673,084, down 0.8% year-over-year. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite fell 0.4% month-over-month and was down 4.7% compared to March 2025 — though the month-over-month decline was smaller than in February, and roughly half the drop recorded in January.
New listings edged down 0.2% month-over-month, leaving overall supply at its lowest levels since mid-2024. With sales and new supply both little changed, the national sales-to-new listings ratio held steady at 47.8% — below the long-term average of 54.8%, but still within the range generally considered balanced market territory. There were 167,524 properties listed for sale across Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of March, up just 1% from a year earlier and 10.6% below the long-term average for this time of year. Months of inventory sat at five nationally — unchanged from January and February, and in line with the long-term average.
CREA Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart pointed to a confluence of headwinds keeping buyers on the sidelines.
"Home sales activity remained at lower levels in March, as rising global economic uncertainty, along with a mid-month jump in fixed mortgage rates tied to incoming higher inflation, piled on to an already shaky economic start to the year," he said. "2026 is still expected to see a modest amount of upward momentum in sales and a stabilization in prices as some pent-up first-time buyer demand enters the market, but the forecast for the year has had to be revised downward. The timing of higher mortgage rates, along with the perception they may be temporary, could keep would-be buyers away at the most active time of year – April, May, and June – as they wait for rates to come back down."
Regionally, prices remain down year-over-year in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario, offsetting gains recorded in other provinces.
CREA's 2026–2027 Chair Garry Bhaura acknowledged the rate headwinds, but offered a more measured take for buyers less exposed to fixed-rate changes.
"While the interest rate situation has recently changed, what could be a challenge for a buyer looking for a fixed rate mortgage may also be seen as more choice and less competition for those choosing a variable rate," he said. "Spring tends to be a busier time of year for the housing market, even if it may not be quite as busy as we were expecting not so long ago. For those of you not impacted by the recent jump in mortgage rates, get working with a local REALTOR® today."
Price stabilization remains part of CREA's official forecast for 2026 — a milestone the association characterizes as an important precondition for buyers to re-enter the market in larger numbers.
