Supply Vs Demand: Muskoka’s 2021 Real Estate Trend Expected to Carry Into 2022


Winter’s winds are blowing through Ontario’s cottage country, and still, competition in Muskoka’s real estate scene remains hot.

According to new data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), residential non-waterfront sales activity recorded through the MLS System for the Lakelands region reached 69 units in December, decreasing 15.9% from the same month the year prior.

Waterfront sales were down year-over-year as well, totalling 35 units last month.

For both property types, the continued slow-down in sales shows a classic seasonal calming of market activity that, during COVID’s first year, was nowhere to be seen in the colder months.

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Where year-to-date data is concerned, residential non-waterfront sales hit a total of 1,815 units through 2021, increasing 9.4% from the same period last year. The same metric for waterfront sales hit 1,695 units between January’s start and December’s end, dropping 4.9% year-over-year.

Last month’s median price for residential non-waterfront property sales was up 44.8% year-over-year, reaching $635,000. In the meantime, waterfront property sales saw their median price rise 25.7% to $1,050,000. For non-waterfront sales, the more comprehensive year-to-date median price soared 38.1% from the same period last year, reaching $580,000. And, for waterfront properties, the same metric climbed 25.8% to land at $861,500.

“In 2021, demand for waterfront properties was dramatically outpacing supply, resulting in fewer waterfront property transactions being sold above list price over a much shorter listing period,” says Ross Halloran, Broker and Senior VP sales at Halloran & Associates of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.

Total dollar values reached $49,256,499 and $46,830,514 for non-waterfront and waterfront properties, climbing 16.3% and declining 32.8% respectively, year-over-year.

Cottages to Remain in Hot Demand as Travel is Limited

The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) — which tracks price trends more accurately than can be done using average or median price measures — recorded the Muskoka Lakes single-family benchmark price to be $1,563,400 last month. This total rests 0.1% lower than the benchmark recorded the month prior, and 31.8% higher than December 2020.

“Looking forward to 2022, our Halloran & Associates team expect the current limited waterfront property supply-over-demand sales trend to continue, as this coveted market continues to grow among a new market of consumers who now view owning a cottage as [a] hassle-free alternative to the challenges and health risks of arranging international recreational travel,” Halloran says, adding: “(especially for the 30-50 year old professional market, who are now encouraged — and able — to relocate to year-round waterfront homes and work remotely.)”

Cover Image: Leon Seibert/Unsplash

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