Following the major rental declines felt during the pandemic-impacted 2020, the Greater Toronto Area rental market has seen strong growth this year -- a trend that's expected to continue well into the New Year.

In 2022, average monthly rents are forecast to increase even higher, with rents in the 416-areas poised to rise by as much as 11%, while 905-areas could see increases between 4%-7%, according to the latest Bullpen Research & Consulting and Toronto GTA Rent Report.   

“We expect the strong growth experienced in the second half of 2021 to continue in 2022, with average rents in old Toronto seeing the highest growth in the GTA,” said Ben Myers, President of Bullpen Research & Consulting.  

READ: Average Rents in Toronto Forecast to Rise Above 2019-Peak Levels Next Year

This forecast comes on the heels of another active month, in which average rental rates for all property types in the GTA increased year-over-year by 4.3% to $2,167 per month in November. This is in stark contrast to the 15.6% annual decline from the same month a year ago.

According to the report, annual rents were up in Toronto, Burlington, Richmond Hill, Oakville, and Oshawa, but were down in North York, Vaughan, York, Scarborough, and Brampton. Toronto had the largest annual increase in average monthly rent for condominium rentals and apartments in November at 10.7% to reach $2,288 per month. 

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However, while rents were down in Scarborough last month, it's the only city in the GTA that monthly rents are expected to top their 2019 pre-covid levels in 2022.

“Central Toronto was the hardest hit during the worst of the pandemic, and despite the outsized rent inflation predicted, only Scarborough is expected to top its respective 2019 peak rent levels,” said Myers.

According to the report, Toronto will bounce back in 2022, as the forecast calls for an annual increase in average rent of 11% next year to $2,495 per month. Similar growth rates are expected in the other three former municipalities, with Etobicoke average rents to increase by 9% to $2,360 per month, while North York is forecasted to grow 9% to $2,195 per month, and Scarborough average rents are expected to go up 10% to an average monthly rent of $2,175 per month.

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As for the rest of the GTA, rent forecasts in the suburbs are more modest, as the 905-area markets didn’t experience declines quite as steep as those in the 416- area markets in 2020. 

Next year, rent in Oakville is expected to rise 7% to $2,635 per month, while rent in Markham is set to increase 4% to $2,295 per month. Rents in Mississauga are expected to rise 7% to $2,265 per month, and rents in Vaughan are can rise by 6% to $2,273 per month.

It is worth noting that rent is not only expected to continue rising in the GTA in 2022, but across the entire country as well.