The fall saw activity slowly pick up again following a sleepy summer, but GTA home sales have cooled again in the early months of 2025, according the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's (TRREB) latest data. In February, GTA-ers completed 4,037 transactions, down from the October peak of 6,658 home sales.
While a relaxed market around this time of year isn't unusual, TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule points to lingering economic factors that may be keeping sales lower than the seasonal average.
"Many households in the GTA are eager to purchase a home, but current mortgage rates make it difficult for the average household to comfortably afford monthly payments on a typical property," she says. "Fortunately, we anticipate a decline in borrowing costs in the coming months, which should improve affordability."
At the same time, geopolitical conflict and increasingly frenetic trade wars are presenting yet another risk factor for would-be homebuyers to grapple with.
“On top of lingering affordability concerns, homebuyers have arguably become less confident in the economy. Uncertainty about our trade relationship with the United States has likely prompted some households to take a wait-and-see attitude towards buying a home," says TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. "If trade uncertainty is alleviated and borrowing costs continue to trend lower, we could see much stronger home sales activity in the second half of this year."
All things considered, it's not surprising sales were down by 27.4% compared to February 2024 and down from 5,971 sales in January. Alongside sales, listings fell 24.3% month over month to 12,066 — though this was after an unusual spike of 18,562 listings in January — and year over year, listings were up 5.4%.
On the price front, the Home Price Index Composite benchmark (HPI) inched down by 1.8% year over year to $1,063,300, while the average selling price fell for a fourth consecutive month to $1,072,123.
Going forward, GTA homebuyers and sellers will face uncharted waters as politicians and governments navigate a number of political and economic headwinds in the coming months. Clarity from lawmakers, TRREB Chief Executive Officer John DiMichele says, will be imperative in bringing buyers off the sidelines.
“With the Ontario provincial election just behind us and the federal political situation in flux, there is a lot to consider from a policy perspective when it comes to housing," says DiMichele "Not only do policymakers and those vying for high public office need to make clear their direction on housing supply and affordability, but they also need to be clear on how they intend to tackle issues related to trade and the economy. Clear direction will go a long way towards strengthen consumer confidence."
