Anyone keeping up with Ontario real estate knows listings have ballooned in recent months as sales have slowed to historic lows, but recent analysis from RBC reveals just how saturated markets have become. According to the bank's housing market forecast update, authored by Assistant Chief Economist Robert Hogue, listings in the province haven't been this high in 15 years.
As of the end of June, active listings on MLS totalled 66,820. The last time Ontario's real estate listings exceeded that amount was in June of 2010, when 67,859 active listings were recorded. But in June of 2010, Ontario was seeing a much more balanced market, with home sales for that month totalling 64,448 transactions, compared to June 2025, when just 16,961 sales were recorded.
Looking ahead, RBC is projecting Ontario home sales for the entirety of 2025 to clock in at 159,400, down 9.3% year over year. If correct, it will be the lowest provincial sales total since at least 2017. On the price front, the average home price across 2025 is expected to be $901,200, before forecasting suggests a further drop to $888,500 in 2026.
While these numbers point to a strong buyers market where "buyers now have more options and feel less urgency to act" and where "strong competition among buyers" will likely continue to force prices lower, many buyers remain priced out of the market.
Despite a 3.5% year-to-date decrease in the average price of an Ontario home compared to the first seven months of 2024, the average home price across the province sits at a historically steep $847,030. In the more expensive GTA region, the average home price was $1,051,719 as of July. For comparison, a GTA home would have run you a more palatable $806,755 in July 2019.
Still, RBC says the declining price trend is likely to continue and that prices do sit at their most affordable level in three years. For many who have been pacing the sidelines, more attainable prices coupled with relatively lower rates could release some of that pent-up demand. And while the Bank of Canada is expected to hold the interest rate at 2.75% through 2026, rates remain much lower than last spring and their impacts are expected to continue trickling through the economy and strengthening as trade tensions improve.
At the national level, RBC sees these conditions "firming" demand in 2026 with a projected 7.9% rebound in home sales, or 504,100 units, though a fragile labour market, reduced immigration targets, and affordability challenges will likely hold back a bigger rebound. Despite the projected increase in sales, national prices are expected to rise 0.7% in 2025, before declining another 0.7% in 2026.
In Ontario and BC, where supply has been mounting and affordability remains out of reach for many, it will take longer for supply and demand to balance out. In these markets, RBC projects prices will continue their decline into early 2026 and then steady.
