The relative slowing of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market is making headlines and filling conversations. 

After the pandemic-inspired flurry of activity and sky-rocketing prices that lasted for nearly a year, the GTA summer real estate market has many buyers and sellers wondering what’s in store for the fall. 

Real estate brokerage Zoocasa has crunched some numbers to offer a little insight. The company has prepared a projection of where home prices and sales will likely be as of October 2021 using 10-year historical data, to calculate the average percentage difference between July and October each year, as well as a high and low range, based on the top five and bottom five between 2010-2020. 

The findings are consistent with our thoughts: the GTA real estate market may be cooling, but it’s still red-hot (and, subsequently, increasingly out of reach for first-time homebuyers. While transactions may slow, prices are set to increase. Sigh.

According to the data:

  • The projected average home price in October 2021 will be $1,114,387, marking a +4.91% increase from July (a dollar difference of $52,131).
  • The projected sales volume for October 2021 will be 9,260, marking a -1.38% decline from July (a difference of -130 transactions) 
  • The low-range projection is an average price of $1,100,637 (+3.6%). The low range for sales is 8,679 (-7.57%).
  • The high-range projection is an average price of $1,127,879 (+6.18%). The high range for sales is 9,882 (+5.25).

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“While it appears today’s market conditions are considerably softer than they were in the spring, it’s important to keep the historical trend in mind – beyond the impact of the pandemic, July can actually be considered above-average in terms of sales and price growth,” writes Penelope Graham on the Zoocasa report. “Sales remain 9.2% above 2019 levels with prices at an all-time high.”

Sadly, we won't have to wait too long to find out if Zoocasa's forecast comes true - it's (somehow) already the middle of August!