On a seasonally-adjusted basis, national housing starts increased by 5% in September, but this was after a 22% drop in August. According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), we're still "well below" the amount of starts necessary to reach our housing goals.
There are a few different lenses through which to view our current standing. On a seasonally adjusted basis, there were 223,808 unit starts in September, up from 213,012 units in August, but the six-month trend saw a decrease of 1.9%. Now, year-to-date (January to September), there was a 2% year-over-year increase in actual, not seasonally adjusted, urban housing starts as numbers ticked up from 165,559 in 2023 to 168,897 this year.
But bottom line: we are not producing enough housing, especially in Ontario and BC where housing affordability is at its lowest.
“Growth in actual year-to-date housing starts has been driven by both higher multi-unit and single-detached units in Alberta, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. By contrast, year-to-date starts in Ontario and British Columbia have decreased across all housing types," says CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist Kevin Hughes. "Despite the increase in housing starts in September, we remain well below what is required to restore affordability in Canada’s urban centres.”
CMHC
In centres with populations of 10,000 or more, September posted a 6% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis, with multi-unit starts seeing a 6% increase to 210,002 units and single-detached units rising by 5% to 46,602 units. In rural areas, a total of 13,806 housing starts were recorded in September.
On a regional level, Toronto continued to drag its heels in September with a 20% drop in actual year-to-date housing starts at 31,948 starts, compared to 39,980 in 2023, though it should be noted that 2023 was a historically high year for housing starts.
Vancouver wasn't much better off posting a 19% decrease in in actual year-to-date housing starts from 25,217 to 20,503, but again, 2023 was an unusually plentiful year for them. In Montreal, which saw a 15% increase in housing starts, the situation is flipped as they saw "historically low" new home construction in 2023.
