The Metro Vancouver real estate market finished 2024 off relatively strong, but the year as a whole was only a slight improvement from 2023 and was down substantially from prior years, according to year-end statistics published by Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) on Friday.
For 2024, the Greater Vancouver region recorded a total of 26,561 residential sales, which represents a 1.2% increase from the 26,249 recorded in 2023. Compared to a wider scope of past years, however, the 2024 total represents a 9.2% decrease from the 29,261 recorded in 2022 and a 20.9% drop-off from the 10-year annual average of 33,559.
On the supply side, a total of 60,388 new homes were listed in 2024, which represents an 18.7% increase compared to the 50,894 in 2023. The 2024 total also represented a 9.7% increase over the 55,047 listed in 2022 and a 5.7% increase over the 10-year annual average of 57,136.
"Looking back on 2024, it could best be described as a pivot year for the market after experiencing such dramatic increases in mortgage rates in the preceding years," said GVR Director of Economics and Data Analytics Andrew Lis. "Disappointingly, sales came in shy of our forecasted target for the year."
In January 2024, Greater Vancouver Realtors said it was projecting a total of 28,250 home sales in 2024, a 7.6% improvement over 2023. It's projection assumed the Bank of Canada would cut its policy interest rate by a minimum of 0.50%. (We started 2024 off at 5.00% and ended at the current rate of 3.25%.)
In terms of prices, the composite residential benchmark price ended 2024 at $1,171,500, a minor 0.5% increase from 2023.
Past Is Prologue
All of this comes despite a relatively strong end to the year. For the month of December, a total of 1,765 home sales were recorded, which represents a big 31.2% improvement from the 1,345 recorded in December 2023. However, that may say more about 2023 than 2024, as the the December 2024 total is 14.9% lower than the 10-year December average of 2,074.
In terms of supply, 1,676 new listings came online last month, which represents a 26.3% increase compared to the 1,327 added in December 2023. The December 2024 was lower than the 10-year average of 1,695, but only slightly.
With that new batch of listings, the amount of total active listings in the region is now at 10,948, which represents a 24.4% increase from the 8,802 at this time last year and a 25.3% increase over the 10-year average of 8,737.
The sales-to-active listings ratio derived from those numbers indicate that the Greater Vancouver real estate market is currently at a healthy balance, with some variance depending on the property type.
The solid finish to 2024 is likely a sign of things to come, according to GVR.
"With borrowing costs now firmly on the decline, buyers have started to show up in numbers after somewhat of a hiatus – and this renewed strength is now clearly visible in the more recent monthly data," said Lis. "These more recent sales figures are now trending back towards long-term historical averages, which suggests there may still be quite a bit of potential upside for sales as we head into 2025, should the recent strength continue."
That strength could potentially get a further boost if the Bank of Canada makes another rate cut at its next scheduled announcement on Wednesday, January 29.
