Toronto’s Home Shortage Issues May Continue To 2041
According to a report released today, Toronto is missing crucial population targets leading to a huge home shortage.
The missed targets could result in 7,200 fewer homes built each year between now and 2041. This deficit is the reason for the recent introduction of the Local Planning Appeal Tribunal (LPAT).
The report, “The GTHA’s Unbalanced Housing Stock: Benchmarking Ontario’s New LPAT System” indicates that as many as 165,600 homes would not be built. This loss would be equal to an annual loss of $1.95 billion in GDP from residential construction.
The Missing Middle:
Paul Smetanin, the president of the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA) says an important factor is the lack of medium-density housing starts, or what the report calls the Missing Middle.
“Hamilton has made the most progress on the ‘Missing Middle,'” Smetanin says. “Toronto, Mississauga, Markham, Newmarket less so, while Brampton is biased towards lower density starts.”
The Report Indicates These Areas Of Concern:
- Only 15% of GTHA households occupy medium-density housing, which causes an inadequate supply of appropriate housing variety.
- Toronto’s number of annual starts is 5-15% higher than required to hit targets, but lack of land availability means the city’s supply will be geared toward taller buildings.
- York Region is the only one in the GTHA with current annual starts on pace to meet its future target population.
- In areas with populations over 80,000 people, Oshawa, Brampton and Newmarket have the lowest share of higher-density starts.
- Municipalities can better optimize infrastructure investments by ensuring that community growth planning is based on a long-term and strategic analysis of future housing requirements.