Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation data shows that 2024 has not been a particularly industrious year for homebuilding in Ontario. Between January and October 2024, the Province started 13,000 less homes than it had during the same period in 2023, while the rest of Canada, on average, started 14,000 more homes.
But according to a study released on Tuesday by the Smart Prosperity Institute (SPI), a University of Ottawa-based think tank and research network, Ontario has consistently ranked in the bottom half of provinces in terms of homebuilding per capita over the last six years — the data for 2024 being an indicator that things are only getting worse.
The report, authored by Economist and Senior Director of Policy and Innovation at SPI Mike Moffat, examines how Canada's 100 largest municipalities are fairing in the nation's race to meet housing demand. To assess this, Moffat and his team compared homebuilding per capita between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2024.
What they found was a skewing of Ontario municipalities towards the lower end of the spectrum. According to the report, only three Ontario communities — Pickering, Oakville, and Kitchener — had housing starts per capita in the top 20 municipalities, while BC had eight and Quebec had four.
In comparison, 13 of the bottom 20 spots for per-capita homebuilding were occupied by Ontario towns and cities, including Aurora, Brampton, Peterborough, St. Catharines, Ajax, Windsor, Burlington, Halton Hills, Sarnia, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay, and North Bay.
For some good news, Toronto ranked in the top 20 for per-capita apartment unit starts, though it was the only Ontario city to do so, and at 15th place, it still came in behind communities such as Burnaby, Moncton, and Gatineau. As well, in terms of homebuilding per 100 new residents, Ontario finished 8th, ahead of only New Brunswick and Saskatchewan, the study found.
In an email regarding the study, Moffat pointed out that mayors of some of the worst-ranked cities, including Brampton (83rd out of 100 for homebuilding), St. Catharines (85th), and Windsor (88th), are a part of a total of 15 Ontario mayors who recently signed a letter asking the provincial government to take away the constitutional rights of persons experiencing homelessness. Specifically, they want to allow Premier Doug Ford to use the notwithstanding clause to allow cities to clear homeless encampments.
Moffat suggests, however, that the solution lies not in municipalities "trampling on constitutional rights" but in taking government action to build more homes. "The province of Ontario, along with Ontario municipalities, needs to enact a series of substantial reforms, from zoning to development charges, if they have any hope of solving the housing crisis," says Moffat in his report.
At stake, he says, is not only an increase in the estimated 234,000 people already experiencing homelessness in Ontario, but a worsening of record low vacancy rates, soaring rents, and record foodbank use.
Lack of adequate housing has also been driving people out of the province. According to the report, over the last four years, over 100,000 more people have moved out of Ontario to other provinces than have moved from other provinces to Ontario, creating a "brain drain": the departure of educated or professional people from one region to another usually for better pay or living conditions.
