Urbanation's Q1-2025 Condominium Market Survey released today confirms what many already know: that Toronto's condo market continues to be in a free fall.
The free fall began in the first half of 2024 and is largely the result of historically low demand driven by high interest rates and over supply (especially of tiny units that don't sell). And tariffs, Urbanation cautions, will only further deter already fledgling condo investment.
“The new condo market is currently working through its most challenging period to date, which has become further impacted by the uncertainty and cost escalations caused by the trade conflict with the US," says President of Urbanation Shaun Hildebrand. "With the Toronto region relying on condos for more than one-half of its total housing development, the magnitude of this slowdown will result in severe supply repercussions.”
In Q1-2025, the situation only worsened, with Urbanation reporting that Toronto saw the condo market groan to its slowest point in over 30 years. In total, the GTHA posted a mere 533 new condo sales last quarter, representing a 62% year-over-year decline and landing sales at the lowest quarterly total since 1995. In the City of Toronto, 215 new condo sales were reported — the lowest number since 1990.
On top of that, there were only two projects in the entire GTHA that launched for presales last quarter, reflecting a trend that started in the beginning of 2024 of projects being put on hold, cancelled, placed in receivership, or converted to purpose-built rental, explains Urbanation. Over the last year, there were 28 presale projects totalling 5,734 units that fell into one of these categories, including four projects totalling 1,042 units in Q1-2025 alone.
And not only are less condos selling, but more condos are selling for less. In Q1, average selling price fell 7% on an annual basis to $1,151 per square foot (psf) from $1,232 psf. Even projects that did see sales were often boosted by incentives like significant cash-back credits at closing, rental guarantees, and extended deposit payment schedules, explains the report. At the same time, average asking price sits at $1,339 psf as of the end of the first quarter, revealing the gap between what developers need to ask for to make projects pencil and what buyers are willing to pay.
This discrepancy stymies demand and has dramatic effects on the supply side of things. In Q1, new condo construction was down 79% compared to Q1-2024 and at its lowest quarterly total since 1996 with only 497 sales, indicating that "collapse" of construction, according to the report. Currently, there are only 69,042 condo units under construction in the GTHA, a decline of one-third over the past two years.
Condo completions, on the other hand, remained 67% higher than the 10-year average in Q1, despite dropping 16% from last year, and completions are expected to total 31,396 units by the end of 2025. The current wave of completions stems from the pandemic-era condo boom and is expected to taper off as the condo market continues its downwards trajectory, with completions falling to just 17,487 units in 2026, projects Urbanation.
On the inventory front, unsold supply continues to grow as demand softens, with inventory increasing 6% to 23,918 units in Q1 compared to last year — equal to 78 months of inventory, or seven times the balanced level of 10-12 months of supply.
The majority of these unsold units (11,073) were in under-construction projects, followed by 10,934 in pre-construction projects, and 1,911 units of standing inventory in completed projects. The number of completed but unsold units are only expected to increase as more projects come online, with 2,411 unsold units currently scheduled to be completed by the end of 2025.
