2024 was a remarkably tough year for new condos in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area — and anyone invested in them. This is evidenced by the fact that 14 condo projects were cancelled in 2024 alone, according to data provided to STOREYS by research and consultancy firm Urbanation. Those projects were anticipated to add 2,805 new units to the GTHA’s market.
Urbanation President Shaun Hildebrand tells STOREYS that this is the highest number of condo units cancelled in a year since 2020 (the first and most restrictive year of the pandemic), when 3,087 units were cancelled across 10 projects. He also notes that of the 14 projects cancelled last year, six were converted to rental, totalling 1,434 units and speaking to the fact that sentiment surrounding rental development in 2024 was markedly more positive.
“There are a whole bunch more that are in receivership, have paused sales, and are very likely to cancel, but haven’t actually given purchasers their deposits back,” Hildebrand adds. “It’s difficult to put a number to it, but there [are] likely more cancellations coming in 2025.”
This all goes hand in hand with the fact that the GTHA has just experienced its worst year for presales since 1996, according to Urbanation’s year-end condo market report, released Thursday. It shows that just 4,590 transactions were recorded in 2024, and that figure marks the third consecutive year of decline, including a 64% decline from the 12,696 sales observed in 2023. The number of transactions recorded in 2024 is also 78% short of the 10-year average for the metric, which is 20,835 sales.
Looking at just the fourth quarter, Urbanation reports that 802 units were presold, up 12% from the quarter prior but down 71% year over year — and representing the lowest fourth quarter for sales since 1993.
Against that sluggish backdrop, just six condo projects launched for presales in the fourth quarter, and even more dismal, just 10% of the 1,829 units launched actually sold. The number of projects launched and sold last quarter paled in comparison to the 10-year average for Q4 periods: 6,123 new units, with a 52% average sales rate.
In any case, those who chose to launch projects in the fourth quarter did so while offering a discount. New projects launched at an average price of $1,130 per sq. ft in Q4, according to Urbanation — “the lowest level since Q2-2021 and down 15% compared to new launches in Q4-2023.”
Meanwhile, there were 24,277 unsold condo units in various stages of development in 2024, including those in pre-construction, under construction, and recently completed. That figure was up 6% from the “previous year-end high” of 22,978 units in 2023, and 50% above the 10-year average of 16,154 units. Thursday’s report says that it would take 64 months to clear current unsold inventory at the 2024 level of sales — “a record high that is nearly six times higher than a balanced level of inventory at 10-12 months of supply.”
As was the case with newly launched units, overall new condo prices came at a discount in the fourth quarter as well, averaging $1,338 psf. That figure is down 3% year over year and is also 5% below the average price psf recorded in Q4-2022.
In a press release, Urbanation President Shaun Hildebrand reiterates that the GTHA’s new condo market has just come off its “toughest year” in thirty years. “Expectations for the market remain low this year as investors, the primary driver of presale activity, continue to deal with negative cash flow, difficulties arranging financing and declining prices and rents,” he adds. “The drop in presale activity will continue to cripple construction starts in 2025, causing a massive decrease in new supply beginning in 2026-2027.”
We’re already seeing starts drop off, it seems. Urbanation reports that 1,506 new condos started construction in the fourth quarter, representing a 59% decrease year over year. Over the entirety of 2024, just 9,258 new units were started, down 51% from the 18,950 units started in 2023, and 56% off the 10-year average of 21,213 units. The last year that the level of condo starts were this low was 2002.
Meanwhile, just 78,742 new condos were under construction across the GTHA at the end of 2024, and that represents the lowest number of units being built since the second quarter of 2020.
In terms of condo completions, 10,916 units were wrapped up as of the fourth quarter, marking 71% rise year over year. In total, there were a “record high” number of completions in 2024, at 29,800 units, which is 24% higher than 2023's completions (24,117 units) and 61% higher than the 10-year average for the metric (18,535 units), according to Thursday's report. “Completions are set for another record high in 2025 with 30,793 units scheduled to finish construction.”
