Canadian Home Prices Continue to Drop, Slip Further 1% in November
Canadian home prices continued their downward trajectory in November, sliding another 0.98% from the month prior, says the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
The average national home price hit $632,802 last month, which also marked a 12% decline from the same time last year, CREA’s latest monthly housing report detailed on Thursday.
November also saw a 3.3% drop in the number of home sales across the county, bringing the year-over-year decline to a very sizable 38.9%. November’s decline, CREA says, more than erases the small gain in home sales that was seen in October. Last month’s sales are also roughly 13% below the pre-pandemic 10-year average for November.
“There were no big surprises in the November housing numbers, with the data showing the same trends of lower sales and moderating prices we’ve been seeing for a number of months now,” said CREA Chair Jill Oudil.
Although not every market in the country saw a drop in its number of home sales, the majority certainly did, with 60% of Canadian markets experiencing a decline, led by losses in Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Edmonton, the Greater Toronto Area, and Montreal.
The number of new listings also slipped in November, down 1.3% compared to October. Although it may not seem like much of a decline, CREA notes that, “with the one exception of 2019, November 2022 saw the fewest new listings for that month in 17 years.” More than half of Canada’s local markets saw a decline in new listings, including a few larger markets like the BC Lower Mainland and Okanagan regions.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio eased to 49.9%, down 1% from October. Because of this continued drop, roughly 70% of Canadian markets are now considered to be in balanced market territory.
Although many would-be sellers are eagerly waiting for the market to pick back up, CREA’s Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart says they may have to hold tight until the spring.
“November’s housing data from across Canada came in as expected — still pretty quiet — and that is unlikely to improve this winter with the Bank of Canada raising rates again last week,” said Cathcart. “It will be interesting to see what buyers do when listings start to come out in big numbers in the spring, and even more interesting to see what happens a little later when the Bank of Canada, now widely thought to be at or very near the top of its tightening cycle, starts to eventually cut rates. All the other fundamental factors needed for the market to take off again are still out there.”
Even with that optimism, the spring market likely won’t be anywhere near the recent market high, Oudil says, noting “it may also be the first spring market in a number of years where buyers have a shot at not being out-competed for properties that catch their eye.”