It took multiple attempts, but the Bank of Canada's rate cuts finally appear to have made an impact on real estate markets in Metro Vancouver, according to new statistics published by both Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) and the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) on Monday.
A total of 2,618 home sales in Greater Vancouver and 1,330 homes sales in the Fraser Valley were recorded in October, which both represent increases of over 30% compared to the 1,977 and 970 sales totals that were recorded in October 2023. The increases come after the sales totals for both regions in September fell below 2023 totals.
In Greater Vancouver, new listings also saw a significant increase with 5,452 homes entering the market, which represents an increase of 16.9% compared to October 2023 and is 20% higher than the 10-year average of 4,545 for October. That new batch of listings brings the total amount of active listings across Greater Vancouver to 13,900, which is again significantly higher than October 2023 and the 10-year October average.
In the Fraser Valley, 3,194 new listings came online last month, which represents a decrease of 5% from September to October, but the overall inventory nonetheless remains well above last year and is now at 8,799 — up 34% year over year as a result of the inventory that accumulated the past few months.
As has been the case in recent months, prices are still trending downwards. The composite residential benchmark price is now at $1,172,200 in Greater Vancouver, a 0.6% decrease from September 2024 and a 1.9% decrease from October 2023. By property type, however, the benchmark price has increased by 0.3% for single-family homes and 0.4% for semi-attached homes when compared to October 2023, while the benchmark price for condominiums dropped by 1.6% in that same time period.
For the Fraser Valley, the composite residential benchmark price is now at $971,700 and has now seen decreases in seven consecutive months. By property type, the benchmark price trends are the complete opposite of those in Greater Vancouver, with the benchmark for single-family homes dropping by 0.6% and semi-attached homes down 1.4% compared to October 2023, while the benchmark for condominiums increased by 0.1%.
Market Analysis
"After waiting it out on the sidelines for a number of months, buyers seem to be finally responding to the series of successive rate cuts by the Bank of Canada," said FVREB Chair Jeff Chadha. "Whether this is an indication of further sales trends, remains to be seen, especially as the feds eye a possible additional cut before year-end."
The Bank of Canada began its recent streak of cuts this summer, with a cut of 0.25% in June, July, and September before a cut of 0.50% in October.
Those cuts, however, did not seem to move the needle in the real estate market, perhaps with many anticipating more cuts to come, but the jump in October seems to indicate that buyer optimism may be returning.
"Typically, reductions to mortgage rates boost demand, and the strong October sales numbers suggest buyers may finally be responding to lower borrowing costs after waiting on the sidelines for months," said GVR Director of Economics and Data Analytics Andrew Lis. "To some market watchers, this rebound may come as a surprise, but with four consecutive rate cuts from the Bank of Canada – and more likely to come on the horizon – it was only a matter of time until signs of renewed strength in demand showed up."
According to both real estate boards, both markets are currently at a healthy balance, based on the sales-to-active-listings ratio.
There is no interest rate announcement this month, with the next announcement set for Wednesday, December 11, when another cut of 0.50% may be in play.
