After a long road of interest rates hikes, the Bank of Canada has brought its policy rate down by a total of 225 basis points since June, but the tariff curveball has prevented lower rates from reviving the Greater Toronto Area’s housing market. The latest report from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), released Thursday, shows that there were just 5,011 home sales in March, marking a 23.1% decrease over last year’s level.
As has been the case in past months, most of March’s transactions were concentrated in the detached home segment, with 2,155 sales recorded (down 24.9% from last year), compared to 1,404 condo apartment sales (down 23.5%), 899 townhouse sales (down 23.2%), and 485 semi-detached sales (down 15.9%).
Meanwhile, new listings continued to pool on the market, with 17,263 recorded across all property types last month. Almost opposite to total home sales, listings surged 28.6% year over year.
And although the average selling price remained objectively lofty, coming in at $1,093,254 by the end of March, it was down 2% month over month. Seasonally adjusted, the MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down 3.8% compared to March 2024 and flat compared to February 2025 on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
With home prices and also borrowing costs down over the past 12 months, TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule pointed out in a press release that homeownership has become more affordable.
“And we expect further rate cuts this spring. Buyers will also benefit from increased choice, giving them greater negotiating power. Once consumers feel confident in the economy and their job security, home buying activity should improve,” she said.
In a similar vein, TRREB’s Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer, said that all eyes are on tariffs as we move through the spring.
“If trade issues are solved or public policy choices help mitigate the impact of tariffs, home sales will likely increase. Home buyers need to feel their employment situation is solid before committing to monthly mortgage payments over the long term,” he added.
In any case, Thursday’s report is more or less in line with TRREB’s market forecast, released in early February. It called for a “well-supplied” market throughout 2025, quelling home prices in the Greater Toronto Area, keeping the annual growth rate below that of inflation, and lending to an overall buyer-friendly market. It also forecasted 76,000 transactions by the end of the year, which is well below the peak of 120,000 transactions recorded in 2021.
