As we move into the last leg of summer, Muskoka’s waterfront segment continues to be uncharacteristically buyer favourable. This is evidenced by seasonally slow sales, a surplus of listings, and prices that are gradually losing steam, according to new figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
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CREA reports that across the Lakelands North region — which includes the sought-after district of Muskoka — just 86 waterfront properties changed hands in July, marking a 4.9% rise year over year. However, any upside is hampered by the fact that July 2023 is regarded as the worst July for the segment in over 10 years.
In addition, there were 777 active waterfront listings recorded last month — and that figure is 23.7% over its year-ago level, when there were 628 active waterfront listings — and nine months of inventory, up from 7.7 months last July.
On the price side of things, CREA says that the average selling price for waterfront properties clocked in at $948,843, while the median selling price was $773,500 in July 2024 — and those prices were down 32.1% and 22.8% year over year. Total dollar volume for the segment, at $81,600,513 last month, took a 28.8% nose-dive year over year.
With all of that said, Ross Halloran, Broker and Senior VP of Sales for Halloran & Associates, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, points to the year-to-date metrics for the “big picture” of what’s happening in Lakeland North’s waterfront segment.
Halloran highlights that year-to-date sales were essentially flat in the first seven months of this year compared to the same period in 2023, with just 451 transactions on the books. That figure is up just 3.4% year over year.
On the listings front, there were 552 active waterfront and 1,587 new waterfront listings, year to date, and those figures are up 47.9% and 23.5% respectively, compared to the same period in 2023. Months of inventory, at 8.6 months, was also up from its year-ago measure of 6 months.
Without many sales, and with plenty of inventory for prospective buyers to choose from, average selling price softened between January and July to $1,292,394, representing a 12.4% decline from 2023, while median selling price was unchanged at $950,000. Year-to-date dollar volume slipped 9.4% to $582,869,711.
On top of all of that, listed properties sat on the market for an average of 28 days in the first seven months of 2024, up from the 22-day average recorded last year.
Halloran says that these metrics, when taken together, “clearly show that buyers and sellers are still not aligned” in the Lakelands North waterfront segment.
“Sluggish buyer demand has not met historic high levels of supply, as they seemingly defer acquiring their dream cottages until the economic picture improves. This also applies to the coveted all-cash buyer” he explains. “We are still experiencing an entrenched buyers’ market, with all key market indices foretelling continued challenges for waterfront properties.”
Arguably, for those with purchasing power and the desire to own cottage country real estate, this is a good, and perhaps unprecedented, time to get a foot in the door of the Lakeland North’s coveted waterfront segment (when there’s little competition to speak of). For current property owners with ambitions to sell, it’s another story entirely.
It is possible that selling conditions will improve this fall, though.
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“Typically, sales in cottage country are strong from end of April until mid-July, and then slow down until after Labour Day when aggressive buyers come out of the woodwork to resume their waterfront property searches, usually expecting significant price reductions to incentivize them to purchase during the lower fall market period,” Halloran says. “With this trend in mind, it is not unusual to find that properly priced, well-staged, and desirable waterfront properties between $1M and $3M will still enjoy strong buyer demand in the fall period.”
It remains to be seen how the ultra-luxury segment will bode, however.
“Waterfront properties priced in the $4M to $8M range, however, are also stalled at present, and are averaging only 90% of adjusted list-price ratios,” Halloran says, adding that the average remains “well below” the historic average of 97%. “Super luxury waterfront market sales — properties priced between $10M $25M — continue to be very slow, with only a handful of transactions occurring during the most recent peak spring and year-to-date summer period. These coveted addresses on the ‘Big 3’ Muskoka lakes languish on the MLS market, despite often receiving several significant price improvements — to no avail.”
