After years of volatility, the GTA housing market is entering a holding pattern.
That’s the takeaway from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review, which forecasts relatively stable home sales and prices this year, as improved buyer choice and affordability continue to be weighed down by cautious consumer sentiment.
TRREB expects 60,000 to 70,000 home sales in 2026, with the first half of the year likely mirroring 2025 as many households remain hesitant to take on long-term mortgage commitments.
A more resilient economy later in the year could unlock pent-up demand that’s been building for several years.
Average home prices are forecast to land between $1 million and $1.03 million. Elevated inventory across most housing types is expected to keep price growth in check and maintain buyers’ negotiating power — particularly in the condominium apartment market. Prices are likely to trend lower year-over-year early in 2026, before stabilizing — if conditions tighten — in the back half of the year.
New Ipsos polling highlights just how tentative buyers remain. Homebuying intentions fell to 22% for 2026, down five percentage points from last year, despite improved affordability. First-time buyers could still play a meaningful role in any recovery, however, with 45% of intending buyers expected to be entering the market for the first time.
On the rental side, demand is expected to remain firm, supported in part by continued immigration. Ipsos also found renters face an affordability gap of nearly $600 per month between affordable mortgage payments and what it would actually cost to buy their desired home — a dynamic likely to keep many households renting longer.
“The housing market reflects the tension many households are feeling as we look ahead to 2026,” said TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld. “Affordability has improved, but uncertainty continues to weigh on long-term decisions like homeownership.”
January market data released alongside the outlook reinforces that theme. Home sales fell 19.3% year-over-year to 3,082, while new listings declined 13.3% to 10,774. The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark dropped 8%, and the average selling price fell 6.5% to $973,289.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales slipped month-over-month, listings edged higher, and prices continued to trend lower.
