The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) released its Market Outlook and Year in Review report on Wednesday morning, and it paints a picture of a buyer-friendly 2025. According to the real estate board, a “well-supplied” market in the year ahead is expected to quell home prices in the Greater Toronto Area, keeping the annual growth rate below that of inflation.
In its outlook, TRREB forecasts that the average selling price “for all home types combined” will reach $1,147,000 this year, which would mark a “moderate” rise of 2.6% over 2024. “Price growth will be more evident in the single-family market segments, including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses,” TRREB said.
Slower overall price growth is expected to entice buyers to come off the sidelines in the year ahead, as will lower borrowing costs. As such, TRREB is calling for a total of 76,000 home sales this year, up 12.4% over 2024. Even so, the Board cautions that transaction levels could be “muted somewhat” by the impact of trade disputes on the economy and consumer confidence.
In particular, the real estate board warns that US tariffs on Canadian exports would “reduce the demand for a wide variety of goods and services,” which could lead to layoffs and stifle purchasing power. “More aggressive” interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada could help to offset some of the tariff impacts, TRREB adds.
The uncertainty surrounding tariffs aside, Ipsos consumer polling conducting by TRREB and included in Wednesday’s outlook shows that buyer sentiment, at present, appears to be holding steady, with 28% of respondents reporting that they are “likely” and 9% say they are “very likely” to buy a home in 2025. “These results matched intentions for 2024,” TRREB noted.
The polling additionally reveals that first-time buyers accounted for 42% of intending homebuyers. That buyer group is anticipated to find their footing in the condominium apartment segment, which is likely to see a “flat-to-downward price trend.”
Also according to the polling, around two-thirds of renters “would not tolerate any further rent increases before seriously considering the purchase of a home” — particularly as borrowing costs and selling prices have become more approachable. “The transition of renters into homeownership, coupled with investors listing their condominium apartments for rent, will add to the supply of available units in the GTA condo rental market,” Wednesday’s outlook notes. “This will sustain a high level of rental inventory, which will see average rents remain below their recent peak.”
In terms of seller sentiment, the Ipsos polling shows that 37% of respondents say they’re “likely” to sell a home in 2025, while 14% say they’re “very likely” to do the same. Again, TRREB notes that this is in line with 2024 polling.
