After hitting "rock bottom levels" in February, GTA new home sales continued to flail in March, finding a new "rock bottom" and marking a sixth consecutive month of record all-time lows, reveals the Building Industry and Land Development Association's (BILD) latest monthly stats report.
In February, there were 400 total transactions recorded. In March, that number slid to 385, despite being further into the typically busy spring season.
At 385 new home sales, GTA activity was down 68% from March 2024 and 87% below the 10-year average. For context, a typical March sees around 3,311 sales, based on the decade-long average.
Now, what was projected to be a hot spring market is turning out to be a bit of a non-starter, thanks largely to an unforeseen trade war.
“Housing prices have stabilized, which is a reflection of the current cost to build and they are likely reaching their low point," says Edward Jegg, Research Manager at the data analytics firm that provides stats to BILD, Altus Group. "This, combined with economic uncertainty, driven largely by tariff concerns, is keeping buyers on the sidelines.”
On top of tariffs, the federal election may also be keeping some buyers on the sidelines while Canadians wait to see which party, and therefore which housing policies, come to fruition. If a would-be-homebuyer knows they can purchase a new home with no GST, for example, they may be inclined to wait a few weeks to lock that in.
Altus Group
Unsurprisingly, new condominium sales drove the decline, with only 160 sales recorded in March, down 75% from March 2024 and a staggering 92% below the 10-year average. For their part, single-family homes made up the remaining 225 transactions, down 61% from March 2024 and 75% below the 10-year average.
Despite the low sales, inventory decreased in March, inching down from 21,863 units in February to 21,707 units comprising 6,803 condos and 4,904 single-family homes. Months of inventory remained the same in March at 14 months based on average sales for the last 12 months.
On the price front, average prices continued to slide in March with new single-family homes falling from $1,536,734 in February to $1,532,279, down 3.9% over the last 12 months. New condo units were priced at an average of $1,020,864 in March, down from $1,021,760 in February and 3.2% over the last 12 months.
Altus Group
Though a new rock bottom was hit in March, this is only the latest in a long string of months in which sales came in far below the historical average. For Justin Sherwood, Senior Vice President of Communications, Research, and Stakeholder Relations at BILD, government action is imperative.
"If this were the auto sector, governments would be lining up with support,” he says in the report. “Let’s not forget: the housing and development industry in the GTA directly employs 285,000 people, results in $16.9 billion in wages, and creates $60.8 billion in economic activity. This is not a fringe issue — it's a cornerstone of our economy."
Sherwood emphasizes what those in the development community have been calling for for years now: a widespread effort from governments to lower municipal fees.
"[I]t’s critical that policy aligns to get home sales and construction moving again. A clear opportunity is to address the 25% of fees, taxes and charges (such as development charges and HST) that governments levy on a new home in the GTA, which add hundreds of thousands of dollars to prices and slow industry activity," says Sherwood. "Now is the time for governments of all levels to implement solutions so that the sector can deliver the jobs and housing that the GTA needs.”
