Although the Bank of Canada had delivered not one, but two quarter-point interest rate cuts before August came around, home sales failed to pick up in the Greater Vancouver region, with just 1,904 transactions recorded last month. This is according to the latest statistics from Greater Vancouver Realtors, released on Wednesday.
In its analysis of August’s stats, GVR noted that transactions recorded in August were down 17.1% from the 2,296 sales recorded the prior year, and 26% below the 10-year metric of 2,572.
“From a seasonal perspective, August is typically a slower month for sales than June or July. In this respect, this August has been no different,” GVR Economist Andrew Lis said. “With that said, sales remain in a holding pattern, trending roughly 20% below their 10-year seasonal average, which suggests buyers are still feeling the pinch of higher borrowing costs, despite two recent quarter percentage point reductions to the policy rate this summer.”
On the inventory side of things, GVR reports that there were 4,109 detached, attached, and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) across Metro Vancouver last month. That figure is up 4.2% compared to the 3,943 properties listed in August 2023. In addition, it's 1.7% shy of the 10-year seasonal average of 4,179 sales.
Meanwhile, the total number of active listings, at 13,812 last month, represented 37% rise year over year. It was also 20.8% above the metric's 10-year seasonal average of 11,432 active listings.
Taking those figures into account, the the sales-to-active listings ratio across all property types ended up at 14.3% in August 2024. This could mean that downward price pressure is on the horizon, according to Thursday's report, as historical data suggests that houses prices tend to fall when the ratio dips below 12% for a “sustained period.”
For the time being, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties clocked in at $1,195,900 last month, and that number is down only nominally on both month-over-month (-0.9%) and year-over-year (-0.1%) bases.
As we cap off the summer, the Greater Vancouver is "firmly" in a balanced market, Lis said — but things are poised to pick up this fall. “With the Bank of Canada’s decision to reduce the policy rate [yesterday] by another quarter percentage point, and with September being a month that typically sees an increase in sales from a seasonal perspective, the fall market is set up to bring more buyers off the sidelines. We will watch the upcoming September data to see whether they decide to show up.”
