New condominium apartment sales in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) fell for the fourth consecutive year, Urbanation’s year-end 2025 Condominium Market Survey shows, plunging 60% from 2024 to just 1,599 units, marking the lowest annual total since 1991.
Urbanation President Shaun Hildebrand warns that by the end of the decade, the region won't be seeing any new condo completions at all.
In 2025, sales came in 91% below the 10-year average, and down 95% from 2021 levels, the Market Survey shows. Momentum didn’t improve at year-end, either, with just 262 units sold in Q4, marking the weakest quarterly result since Q3-1990.
The slowdown has coincided with a surge in project cancellations. In 2025, a record 28 active condo projects — totalling 7,243 units — were cancelled, more than double the number of units cancelled in 2024 and well above the previous record set in 2018. Eight of those cancelled projects, representing 2,189 units, were converted to purpose-built rental, following a similar shift involving 1,434 units in 2024.
But even with those conversions, condominium construction activity declined sharply.
Purpose-built rental starts increased 24% year-over-year to 8,545 units in 2025 — marking a multi-decade high — while condo starts fell 63% to 3,272 units — a multi-decade low. Zooming out further, condo starts have dropped 88% over the past three years, resulting in a 10-year low of total inventory under construction: 50,479 units.
Last year, developers launched just 10 new condo projects in the GTHA, delivering 1,425 units to market. Only 22% of those units sold, down from 24% in 2024 and well below the 81% sales rate recorded in 2021. This lowering came despite average new-launch selling prices falling to a five-year low of $1,123 per sq. ft, down 8% from 2024 and 18% from 2022. New condos continued to sell at a premium when placed against comparable resale units, which averaged $856 per sq. ft in Q4 for condos completed within the past three years.
Urbanation reports that sales activity also shifted away from pre-construction in 2025. The year saw a record-high 33% of new condo sales occur in projects at the occupancy or registration stage, up from 9% in 2024 and 2% in 2023. Pre-construction projects accounted for less than half of new condo sales for the first time, after typically representing more than 70% of annual activity.
Completed and unsold inventory climbed accordingly. As of year-end 2025, there were 3,897 completed and unsold condo units, up 131% from a year earlier and five times higher than levels seen in 2023. Urbanation also found that approximately 10% of pre-sold condos registered in 2025 were taken back by developers after purchasers failed to close, representing roughly 3,000 units.
All of this unfolded as completions remained elevated. A total of 29,291 condo units were completed in 2025, nearly matching the record set in 2024 and running 50% above the 10-year average. Completions are expected to fall to 22,066 units in 2026 and 14,366 units in 2027. And by 2029, Urbanation says virtually no new condos are expected to be delivered.
"As the condo market enters the fifth year of its largest ever correction, the duration of this downturn should be a significant cause for concern as it relates to future supply," Hildebrand said in a release. "By the end of the decade, we know with certainty that there won’t be any new condo completions."
"What we don’t know," Hildebrand continued, "is how far into the 2030s the supply crunch will last. If rental construction can’t fill the void, this raises serious questions around the impact on affordability.”
